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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 4th, 2015–Feb 5th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

An increasing avalanche danger should be limited mainly to above tree line areas in the Olympics on Thursday.

Detailed Forecast

Southwest flow will carry the first in a parade of mild wet fronts across the Northwest on Thursday. This will cause increasing winds and increasing moderate to heavy rain or snow by Thursday morning with rising snow levels. The snow level should rise to at least 6500 feet over the Olympics by Thursday afternoon.

The avalanche problem in the Olympics should be increasing but small loose wet snow avalanches above treeline involving snow from so far in February. The late January crust should make a good bed surface on many slopes. Small natural or triggered loose wet avalanches should be possible above treeline.

Little if any avalanche danger is expected Thursday near or below treeline in the Olympics due to little if any recent snow or no snow.

Snowpack Discussion

Mild weather with sunny days or minor rain was seen from about January 26th to about January 31st. This further depleted the meager snowpack at Hurricane.

Slightly wet weather from about February 1 through today produced an 1-2 inches of snow at Hurricane with more possible at higher elevations elsewhere in the Olympics.

The latest observations from Hurricane are from January 25th by pro-observer Katy Reid. She made a trip out to Mt. Angeles to one of the few above treeline areas accessible from Hurricane Ridge. She found snowdepths averaging 40-80 cm on N slopes with a few drifts above 1 meter. Snow cover was patchy only a few hundred feet below the ridge even on N facing slopes. This snow was well bonded consisting of melt forms and crusts and did not pose an avalanche problem.

There is currently not enough snow near and below treeline at Hurricane to cause an avalanche danger. 

 

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.