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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2017–Mar 15th, 2017

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Warming is driving the avalanche danger higher: Don't underestimate the effect of high freezing levels or sunny afternoons. Conservative terrain use is essential this week and watch out for overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Warm temperatures and high freezing levels continue with moderate winds and precipitation in the south of the region on Wednesday. WEDNESDAY: Another 10-20cm of fresh snow is possible in the very south of the region, accompanied by moderate south winds. Freezing levels near 1700m. THURSDAY: Sunny breaks with flurries (up to 5cm) accompanied by moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels dropping to 1200m. FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries (5cm) with moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels near 1200m.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle to Size 2.5 was reported below treeline on Monday afternoon as temperatures warmed up.Wet slabs to Size 2 were also reported on east aspects below treeeline. On Saturday skiers in the north of the region were able to trigger a Size 1.5 storm slab, sliding on a wind-pressed layer below. See here for their MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

Warming temperatures on Monday afternoon destabilized the snowpack, resulting in a widespread natural avalanche cycle below treeline. Use extra caution for the time being in what is normally a 'safer' elevation band. Surface snow up to 2000m is moist (read: heavy). We've had 5-15cm of fresh snow (with moderate to strong southerly winds) each of the past several days. Touchy storm slabs can be found at all elevations with weaknesses within and under this recent snow.Recent moderate to strong southerly winds have created reactive wind slabs at treeline and above. All this recent snow is bonding slowly to faceted snow, thin sun crust on steep southerly aspects, as well as surface hoar in sheltered areas in some parts of the region.About 80-120 cm below the surface you may find the mid-February persistent weakness. Professionals in the region have also warned that a 'threshold load' has been reached above this interface, particularly where it presents as a crust.Deep persistent weaknesses (over 1.5 metres down) still have the potential to react to human triggers or smaller slab avalanches, especially with the warming temperatures or solar inputs.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.