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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 23rd, 2019–Nov 24th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

30+ cm of new snow is expected by Sunday morning which will likely result in two things:

1. A touchy storm slab problem.

2. Potentially wake up the persistent slab problem.

Choose simple terrain Sunday as the snowpack adjusts to the load of new snow.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainties in both the snowpack structure and the weather forecast limit our confidence.

Weather Forecast

Saturday Night’s storm should offer the Cariboos a nice re-fresh before we move into a period of high pressure next week.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1400 m, strong southwest wind, 5 to 20 cm of snow possible.

SUNDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1200 m, moderate to strong west/northwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.

MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 700 m, light variable wind, trace of snow possible.

TUESDAY: Scattered cloud cover initially, clearing in the afternoon, freezing level at valley bottom, light variable wind, no significant precipitation expected.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche activity has been reported. A natural avalanche cycle is possible Saturday Night as storm snow begins to stack up on a weak and variable snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

As of Saturday afternoon the storm has produced 10 to 15 cm of new snow with light southwest wind. Winter is slowly descending to the valleys with about 90 to 120 cm of snow present around 2000 m.

There are likely a variety of crusts in our young snowpack, but a problematic rain crust down about 50 cm is beginning to stand out. This "October Crust" is showing sudden & repeatable results when subjected to snowpack tests. Avalanches failing on this interface have the potential to be large and could easily surprise users who are getting out onto snow for the first time this season. There's a great "pre-weekend-storm" summary of conditions at Allan Creek here.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.