Avalanche forecast

Jasper

May 11 – 12, 2019Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 7 years ago

Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

To freeze or not to freeze...

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3.5

    Occasional cornice falls are expected, increasing into the weekend. some of these may trigger large slab avalanches, running well down into lower elevations.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Weak mid-pack facets and upper-snowpack are reactive, especially on shaded, wind-sheltered slopes. This is a Wet Slab problem on solar aspects, as water accumulates above strong crusts.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Summer like temps have created an avalanche cycle. With no overnight freezes and more sunny days forecasted this problem will continue for the next while. Limited snow below treeline but one could expect it to be very isothermal and reactive.

Weather Forecast

Warm and convective with no overnight freezes.

Sunday: Cloudy, 2800m freezing levels and possible showers starting in the evening. Light ridge wind.

Monday: Cloudy with showers, up to 6mm Low 2, High 9. Freezing levels 3000m. Light ridge wind.

Tuesday: Cloudy with scattered showers up to 4mm. Low 3 High 10 light-moderate winds. Freezing level 3100m

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack is becoming isothermal into the alpine on shady aspects. The snowpack has transitioned rapidly from winter to a summer like snowpack. Little to no overnight freezes are forecasted.

Avalanche Summary

Since the warming trend there has been an avalanche cycle. Numerous loose wet avalanches up to size 2 have been observed in the alpine and treeline. Near Jasper townsite in shallow snowpack areas several large (size 3) slab avalanches have been observed on North to Easterly aspects in the alpine and running into valley bottoms.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Regions covered