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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 18th, 2019–Apr 19th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia.

Additional snow, wind, and warm temperatures on Thursday night may form touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers at treeline and above.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Rain (snow above roughly 2000 m.); 10-20 mm / Strong, southwesterly winds / Alpine low -1 C / Freezing level 2200 m.

FRIDAY: Rain (snow above roughly 1500 m.); 5-10 mm / Moderate, southwesterly winds / Alpine high -3 C / Freezing level 1700 m.

SATURDAY: Sunny / Light, northwesterly winds / Alpine high -2 C / Freezing level 1800 m.

SUNDAY: Sunny / Light, northwesterly winds / Alpine high -1 C / Freezing level 2100 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Wednesday. However, avalanche activity is expected to increase on Friday with the forecast rain/snow and strong winds.

On Tuesday, a natural size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche was reported on a west aspect at 2750 m. Additionally, a skier triggered size 2 storm slab avalanche was reported on an east aspect at 2700 m.

On Monday, a skier remotely triggered a size 2 storm slab from 10 m. away on a steep north facing feature in the alpine that was 20-30 cm. deep.

Snowpack Summary

New snow/rain on Thursday is adding to the 20-40 cm recent snow which overlies a crust everywhere except high elevation, north facing terrain where preserved surface hoar (weak, feathery crystals) may be present in isolated locations. A similar layer buried in early April is down 40-50 cm. Smaller storm slab avalanches may step down to one of these deeper weak layers.

Below treeline, snow is disappearing rapidly.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.