New snow is in the forecast for Saturday. Amounts are uncertain at this time as well as there is low confidence in this system so stay tuned.
Confidence
Fair - Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday
Weather Forecast
A cooling trend is happenning over the next few days and then on Saturday, there is snow in the forecast. Models vary at this time but we may see up to 20cm of new snow. Winds are forecast to be calm over the next few days.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were observed.
Snowpack Summary
10-15cm of snow is overlying the 0327 interface at 2200m and above. There was also surprisingly little wind affect despite strong winds earlier in the week. Field teams on Thursday were in the Turbine canyon area and found a generally well settled snowpack above 2200m. In the top 30cm of the snowpack there are a series of crusts from last weeks heat. No shears were observed on these crusts but that may change when we get a large load of new snow like we usually do in the spring. The crust remained intact throughout the day on Thursday as temperatures remained cool. At lower elevations, when the crust breaks down, the snowpack is purely isothermal.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.