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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 23rd, 2018–Dec 24th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

More than a foot of snow fell in Hurricane Ridge area and will form a slab. Give the snow another day to settle and bond to the underlying snow before venturing into steep or complex terrain.

Discussion

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

As the sun comes out on Monday, expect small loose snow on steep south-facing slopes as rocks and branches start shedding their snow. These avalanches will be dangerous in complex terrain features including terrain exposed to rocks, trees, steep gulleys, or cliff bands.

The most recent observation is from a variable and shallow 2-3’ snowpack at 5400’ in the eastern Olympics, on December 22nd, prior to the recent storm. Alternating melt-freeze layers and rounding grains were observed.

These observations are similar to the snow structure last reported from Hurricane Ridge (8 days old). Expect extreme variation in snow depths in the Hurricane Ridge area due to stormy conditions throughout the last two weeks. The below treeline snowpack is likely still marginally thin to support avalanches below 4500'.

Forecast schedule

For the 2018-19 winter season, avalanche hazard ratings will be issued for the Olympics Friday through Sunday and during holidays.

On days that the Hurricane Ridge road is closed, No Rating will be applied. We will continue to provide general snowpack and weather summaries for the Hurricane Ridge area even when No Rating is issued.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.