Avalanche Forecast

The first 9 days in December were clear and cold. Surface hoar grew large during this time, and facets developed near the surface of the cold, low density snow. On December 9th this layer was covered up and preserved on many aspects and elevations. On December 12 an observer reported shooting cracks at Mission Ridge. In adjacent regions numerous avalanches and signs of instability were observed on December 11th. A professional observer reported a large natural avalanche in the Spire Gully on Washington Pass with an impressive powder cloud. Near here, the observer reported triggering avalanches remotely (from a distance) and widespread collapses on the old snow layer near the hairpin on Hwy 20. Test results indicated the potential for wide propagation on this layer of buried surface hoar and near surface facets.

You are likely to trigger an avalanche that will break on the weak, old snow interface which can be found one to two feet down, and could surprise you. Look for signs of instability such as whumphing, shooting cracks through the snow, and recent avalanches. 

Welcome winter!!!

The NW snowpack is evolving quickly and a near constant pattern of winter storms with fluctuating freezing levels is making things interesting for our 1st week of forecasting.

Here’s what we know:

• Tuesday saw a significant avalanche cycle.

• We have a lot of new snow...2-3’ above 4500ft.

• We’ve gotten a lot of wind.

• We have weak layers near the ground.

• We are going to get more snow before the weekend.

All in all that’s enough to indicate that dangerous avalanche conditions will persist over the next couple of days. That said, it is early season and the flavor of avalanche you may run into is likely a function of elevation, timing, and dumb luck.

Here are some basic emerging patterns:

• Storm total (Monday morning to Wednesday evening):

  • Mt. Baker: 24”

  • Washington Pass: 22”

  • Snoqualmie Pass: 10”

  • Paradise: 17”

  • Mt. Hood Meadows: 10”

• Upper versus Lower Elevations: The change in the snowpack is still pretty dramatic with elevation. Height of snow decreases rapidly below 4500’ at Baker and Washington Pass, 5500’ at Crystal/Rainier. The Passes have better low elevation coverage, but it's still pretty thin below 4000’. With additional warm storms in the forecast, this pattern is expected to continue for awhile.

• East versus West: Loading along the East slope has been more incremental, and a  variety of buried facet and surface hoard layers may be found. This is most pronounced near WA Pass. Although significant snowfalls and precip totals have resulted in thicker, more homogeneous snowpack in the western zones, lingering weak layers near the ground will persist through the week.