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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2014–Jan 4th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Saturday: Broken skies overnight with some clear periods or high clouds during the day. Cooler more seasonal temperatures with freezing levels dropping down to near sea level overnight and then rising to about 200 metres during the day. Moderate Northwest winds and no precipitation forecast.Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation. Light South winds becoming moderate as warm air moves in from the Pacific. Freezing level may rise to ridgetops.Monday: Overcast with moderate Southwest winds and warm air trapped at higher elevations.

Avalanche Summary

In the Southwest of the region, 30 cm of storm snow was very reactive to ski cutting up to size 1.5. There was also one natural avalanche size 2.0 wind slab release reported. Natural avalanches were reported from the Ashman area over New Year's, with one natural size 2.5 reported from a NW aspect that ran 3/4 of the path.

Snowpack Summary

Weaknesses within and under the recent storm snow will likely take several days to settle and strengthen after the storm passes. A number of rain crusts may exist in the upper and mid snowpack, primarily below 1500 m. Deeper in the snowpack a layer of facets/surface hoar formed in early December may be found in the top 100cm. The mid and lower snowpack is still structurally weak and faceted with depth hoar and an early season crust near the ground.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.