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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2012–Jan 15th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

Sunday should be a beautiful day in the mountains as an outbreak of cold, dry Arctic Air takes hold of the region. Expect alpine winds out of the N, NE with lower elevation winds out of the E. Temperatures dip down to -26 overnight with a daytime high around -10. This pattern looks to persist through Tuesday evening.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches were reported from the region. This may speak more to limited observations due to weather, rather than actual conditions.

Snowpack Summary

Some areas (Terrace, Kaziks) are reporting an alpine snowpack of 5 metres. In these areas the mid-December surface hoar-facet layer is buried down about 250 cm and has not been reactive for quite some time. At this time the biggest issue in the region seems to be new snow instabilities. Although they can be quicker to heal than other weaknesses, they may be highly destructive, especially with this season's pattern of heavy accumulations of snow combined with strong winds.The region received 30 - 50 cm of snow since Wednesday. Wind data from the region is currently sparse, but it's fairly safe to assume that winds are at threshold values for wind slab development.On that note, we're heading into the first significant outbreak of Arctic Air this season. This cool dry air typically comes out of the NE at higher elevations while topography forces the air to move out of the East at mid/low elevations. This easterly wind is opposite of the typical westerlies, so, we call this "Reverse Loading." Backcountry users need to watch for wind slabs in unusual locations the next few days. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.