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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2018–Mar 16th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Incoming new snow should improve the skiing significantly. Check the bond of this new snow to the previous surfaces carefully before committing to any big terrain.

Weather Forecast

An unusual upper level flow is creating a weather pattern that is unusual and challenging for the weather models to predict.Friday: Cloudy with snow (up to 15cm). Alpine temps: Low -5 C, High -3 C. Ridge wind light. Freezing level: 1900m.Saturday: Flurries. (up to 5cm). Alpine temps: Low -7 C, High -3 C. Light ridge wind. Freezing level: 1900m.

Snowpack Summary

Fresh snow with light (gusting moderate) Northerly winds is building fresh storm slabs in exposed areas.  Incoming snow is falling on a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects below 3000m and old facetted wind slabs on polar aspects above 1700m. The weak Feb. 8th interface under the old windslabs may remain a concern on high north aspects.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity has been observed or reported.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.