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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2015–Jan 17th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

A system is expected to cross the region this weekend.  This will bury the surface hoar currently on the snow surface which will likely be a problem for some time.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Winds are forecast to ease off slightly on Sunday before the remnant if a system cross the forecacst region beginning Saturday afternoon/evening.  Up to 15cm of snow may fall and this will then officially bury the surface hoar layer.  Temperatures are forecast to cool slightly.

Avalanche Summary

No new Natural avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

A trace amount of new snow fell overnight but not enough to really bury the surface hoar that has been growing on all aspects up to 2400m. The Dec 13th interface is down 30-40cm and continues to produce moderate sheers on a layer of facets over this crust. This crust, the Dec 13, is only being found up to 2250m-ish. Below this the mid pack is generally well settled with the 1106cr down 1m. Most alpine terrain is wind hammerred and even some areas down into treeline saw some wind affect on Friday.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.