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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2015–Jan 24th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

The forecast is uncertain at this point. New snow load and freezing levels are to be watched closely. The ratings reflect this uncertainty.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

The snow has apparently missed us. Yesterday's predicted storm has been downgraded to only 9cm's. The good news is that freezing levels are not expected to rise as high as first thought. 1500m temps should be around zero degrees for most of tomorrow. The winds are still expected to haul out of the west at 3000m, but at ridge top they will be only moderate (30km/h).

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches were seen today

Snowpack Summary

Today's trip went to Commonwealth ridge. At treeline, there was 94cm of snow with the Dec 13th crust down 25cm. There was no surface hoar found at this location, however it is out there in specific areas. Tests gave mostly moderate results indicating the potential for avalanches on the Dec 13 layer. The deeper basal layers are there, but seem to be hanging in there in terms of improving strength. Near the end of the day winds picked up and there was even some light rain at lower elevations.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.