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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2014–Jan 17th, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Avalanche control work and natural avalanche observations have resulted in numerous full depth releases involving the entire winters snowpack. Minimize exposure to overhead terrain and watch for effects of rapidly rising temperatures on solar aspects

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Freezing level is forecast to rise up to 1900m on Friday and up to 2200m on Saturday!  No new precipitation in the foreseeable future .  Winds will be light out of the north.

Avalanche Summary

A few recent avalanches up to sz 3 have been observed over the past few days. These slides have mainly been on N and E aspects but have been running full path involving the entire winters snowpack. A size 3.5 natural avalanche was observed in the area of the Smuts/Fist col on Thursday and two days previous a SIze 3 natural avalanche occurred in the Heros Knob Bowl area which ran full path to the valley floor.  Both are S/SE facing and have experienced considerable loading and solar influences with the clearing skies.

Snowpack Summary

Strong to extreme SW winds and warm temps have promoted rapid settlement of the snowpack over the past 48hrs. Any available snow in Alpine terrain has been redistributed by the wind and deposited in lee features and along cross-loaded gullies. The additional load from the winds seems to be kicking off another cycle of natural avalanche activity mainly on N and E aspects as the basal facets become overloaded.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.