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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 26th, 2013–Feb 27th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Windslabs remain the greatest concern with persistent westerly winds in the moderate range.  As the week progresses and forecast warming occurs it may become necessary to pay close attention to the effects of daytime heating on solar aspects.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Temperatures at 3000m cool in the -15 deg range until midday Thursday when they begin to climb to the -5 deg range.  A chance of a quick pulse of new snow on Wednesday night but amounts of only 2-4cm likely.  Moderate westerly winds increasing to strong/extreme by Wednesday night into Thursday and after that the winds really go to town with the warmer air and are forecast to top over 100 km/h by Friday.

Avalanche Summary

Several loose dry sluffs to Size 1.5 from steeper lee aspects with small cornice failures the trigger for some

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow from past few days slowly adding up with 10-15cm low density snow in sheltered areas.  Several test profiles done today with consistent results - CTM14-16 (PC) down @15+ cm on top of old windslabs and CTH24 (SP) down 30-35cm on Jan hardslab interface.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.