Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Unsettled conditions are expected for Friday and Saturday morning before the next storm system arrives on the south coast Saturday afternoon. Precipitation is expected Saturday night and Sunday but there is some uncertainty regarding amounts and timing.Friday: A mix of sun and cloud, light scattered flurries, freezing level am: 1100m pm: 1500m, ridgetop wind: light SW-WSaturday: Precipitation beginning midday 3-6mm, freezing level am: 800-1100m pm: 1600m, ridgetop wind: becoming moderate-strong SW-W with storm frontSaturday Night: Precipitation 5-15mm, freezing level: 1200m, ridgetop wind: moderate-strong SW-WSunday: Precipitation 3-6mm, freezing level am: 1200m pm: 1600m, ridgetop wind: moderate SW-W
Avalanche Summary
Sluffing from steep terrain and small pockets of soft slab activity in the alpine were reported on Wednesday.
Snowpack Summary
The new snow sits on a melt-freeze crust which exists on all aspects up to 2000m and to mountain-top on sun-exposed slopes. The recent warmer temperatures have helped to strengthen and settle the upper snowpack. Large sagging cornices are looming over slopes and pose a threat, especially during periods of warming. The deep and destructive early February facet/crust layer is now close to 200 cm below the surface. This layer is largely dormant at this time; however, it should remain on your radar, especially when freezing levels are high and the sun is shining.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.