At upper elevations where rain is forecast to fall on previously dry snow we could see avalanches release on the curst that formed early in February. Warming temperatures will also increase the likelihood of cornice collapse.
Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Warm, wet and, windy conditions look likely to persist through the next couple of days. Thursday will see light to moderate precipitation (up to 10mm) and a freezing level of 2500m with light to moderate southwest winds. Brief periods of sun are expected for Friday broken by showers with a freezing level of 3000m and moderate southwest winds. The clearing trend will continue into Saturday when the freezing level is forecast to return to 1500m accompanied by light northwest winds.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche activity appears to have tapered off for now although small lose wet avalanches have been reported in steep terrain.
Snowpack Summary
It's definitely not your typical early February coastal snowpack. At upper elevations continued warm temperatures are encouraging the settlement of recent storm snow. The supportive crust that formed at all elevations earlier in February can now be found down about 70 to 100cm in the alpine. Southwest winds have loaded lee features and cornices are reported to be looming threateningly at ridgeline. Snowpack tests on the crust are showing that it is gaining strengthen. Moist snow has been reported bellow 2200m and a slush on crust setup makes for difficult riding conditions below treeline.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.