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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 21st, 2018–Feb 22nd, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Mt Hood.

Cold temperatures will slow recent wind slabs from stabilizing. Avoid steep wind loaded terrain especially above treeline on all aspects. Loose dry avalanches are possible on very steep slopes and could become dangerous around terrain traps.

Detailed Forecast

Cold temperatures with continued snow showers Wednesday not will not significantly increase the current danger. The cold temperatures will allow recent slabs to persist longer than usual. 

Due to previous shifting winds, avoid steep wind loaded terrain especially near and above treeline on all aspects. Wind sculpted features, cracks in the snow, pillows, cornices, and variable height of recent snow are all indicators that you could trigger a new or old Wind Slab avalanche. 

Loose-Dry avalanches remain possible on steep slopes. With up to 4 ft of new low density snow, any Loose-Dry avalanche may entrain significant snow and could become dangerous, especially near or above terrain traps, like gullies, cliffs or trees.

Snowpack Discussion

An additional 12" of cold low density snow accumulated in the Mt Hood area by Wednesday morning. The newest snowfall is not significantly increasing the danger as it has little to no slab properties. However, the new powder snow may be masking underlying wind slabs formed last weekend in higher more exposed terrain.

Earlier wind slabs have been slowly settling, but the cold temperatures are limiting this process. Watch out for older wind slabs, especially being masked by loose dry surface snow. 

About 4 ft of snow has been received since Saturday and has fallen with cold temperatures and diminishing mostly light winds. 

The strong storm system that preceded the colder weather brought heavy precipitation in the form of snow, ice and rain to Mt. Hood Saturday along with moderate winds increasing to strong and gusty winds in the afternoon (WSW gusts 40-70 mph were common at the lower NWAC wind sites!). The rain-line reached near 6000 feet Saturday mid-day before cooling ensued.  

Prior to this system, 12-18 inches of storm snow fell late last week and sits on a strong firm crust layer formed earlier in the month. There are no significant layers of concern in the mid and lower snowpack.

Observations

On Wednesday, professional observations from the Mt Hood Meadows area indicated Loose-Dry avalanches were possible in steep terrain with several small natural Loose-Dry releases seen.

On Monday, Mt Hood Meadows patrol traveled into the above treeline area for the first time since the strong storm cycle. Surprisingly, finding a lack of wind slabs in terrain usually laden with wind slabs. The very cold temperatures may have limited slab formation in this area. However, given the strength of the winds, reactive wind slabs are not being ruled out above treeline. 

On Sunday, Mt. Hood Meadow reported generally soft storm or wind slab avalanches breaking within the new storm snow. Despite significant winds occurring mid-day near treeline, the usual firmer wind slabs present on Mt. Hood were not observed. No observations were available above treeline. 

On Saturday morning, a new rain or freezing rain crust was noted up to 6600 ft. Rime ice had covered most surfaces. Strong winds prevented observations later in the day. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.