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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2016–Jan 4th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

An above-freezing air layer currently in the alpine spreads to all elevations by Saturday, before a welcome cooling trend kicks in Saturday night. Enjoy the sunshine, and consider leaving your bigger objectives for Sunday once the snowpack cools off.

Weather Forecast

A strong ridge is anchored over interior BC.  A layer of unseasonably warm air covers the Rockies, with temperatures around or even above 0 expected at all elevations on Saturday, which is also forecast to be clear and calm. Sunday-Monday promise a mix of sun and cloud, andcooler temperatures. Moderate SW winds develop on Sunday night.

Snowpack Summary

Surfaces are sun affected on steep solar slopes. 10cm of recent snow has formed small stubborn wind slabs in isolated lees, and buried larger old windslabs. A layer of surface hoar down 40-60cm exists in some Treeline & Alpine locations, and a weakening crust is down 80-100cm. These have produced Moderate - Hard, Sudden results in snowpack tests.

Avalanche Summary

One small loose wet avalanche observed this afternoon from solar aspect Alpine terrain. Also, a few small wind slabs occurred yesterday in Alpine terrain. These were on North facing slopes loaded by downslope winds / light spindrift from steeper terrain above.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.