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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2016–Jan 20th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

The good skiing is currently in sheltered trees. This terrain is also less likely to have Wind Slab sitting on the widespread early January weak layer - a no-brainer! Avoid areas where the snow feels grabby, stiff, or slab- like.

Weather Forecast

Temperatures rose sharply Saturday night, but should cool slightly to hover around -5 at Treeline the next few days. Expect variable cloudiness, with occasional light snowfall, but nothing significant until Tuesday night, when we could see 5-10cm of new snow. Winds Strong from the SW on Sunday night and Tuesday night, otherwise Moderate.

Snowpack Summary

25cm of recent snowfall has made for good skiing below treeline, and sluffing in steep terrain. Strong SW winds are blowing this around to form Wind slabs in lee areas, and warm temperatures may be turning unconsolidated recent snow into storm slabs. These sit on a weak layer of Facets and Surface Hoar, or sun crust, down 25-50cm.

Avalanche Summary

Several Size 1 Loose Dry avalanches were artificially triggered by parks forecasters in steep trees near Cameron Lake on Friday, and numerous natural Size 1 Loose Dry avalanches were observed today from steep terrain at all elevations. One natural Size 1.5 Wind Slab was observed today in alpine terrain, triggered by sluffing from cliffs above.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.