Wind slabs may develop Wednesday through Thursday with the 15-20 cm of new snow that is forecast. This could push the avalanche danger higher.
Weather Forecast
Dry and sunny on Tuesday with temperatures remaining below freezing for mid elevation. Westerly winds Tuesday night will create thin slabs on north and east lee terrain. Snow and light winds are forecast Wednesday through Thursday. Some reports say we may get 15-20cm.
Snowpack Summary
Cooler temperatures the past few nights have helped to strengthen the snowpack. Test results on Monday on NW and SE aspects did not show any significant concerns. Shallow snowpack areas still will have weak basal facet issues. The 6 - 10 cm of new snow that fell on Sunday morning helped to freshen up the previously wind or sun affected surfaces.
Avalanche Summary
The 6-10 cm of new snow from Sunday morning has resulted in minor sluffing from steep terrain on all aspects.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.