Ongoing warm temperatures in the upper elevations will be putting the entire snowpack to the test over the next couple of days. Best to wait for the next bout of cooler weather for any bigger objectives.
Weather Forecast
Friday: Snow/rain (10-20cm). Ridge wind strong-extreme SW. Alpine temps, Low 0, High 3. Freezing level 2500m.Saturday: Cloudy, PM flurries. Ridge wind mod-light SW. Alpine temps, Low -8, High -1. Freezing level 2000m.Sunday: Models disagree, possible snow/rain (0-40cm), Ridge wind light N. Alpine temps, Low -5, High -2. Freezing level 1600m.
Snowpack Summary
Minimal surface crust recovery with freezing levels staying above 2000m overnight. Incoming warm snow with wind will likely form slabs quickly. As snow transitions to rain watch for surface instabilities to become reactive quickly. Basal facets persist in some areas, and may become reactive to large triggers as a result of ongoing warm temps.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous small to large (up to size 2.0) natural loose wet avalanches were observed on Thursday by neighboring operations, these occurred on all aspects and at all elevations.
Confidence
Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.