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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 8th, 2014–Dec 11th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Warming will cause some deterioration in both the snowpack and travel conditions especially for Wednesday. Below treeline travel off of trails is not recommended due to poor coverage.

Weather Forecast

The freezing level is expected to continue rising Tuesday reaching  near mountain top with about 10mm of rain forecast. Freezing levels look to return to Little Prairie Wed and hopefully the 10mm of precip forecast for Wed night arrives as snow.

Snowpack Summary

Suncrusts forming steep South slopes. Wind effect found in open areas treeline and above. Mid-Nov facets sit on 30cm of crusts formed early in November at treeline and above. Below 2200m, rain at the start of the storm on Nov 26 created a crust over the facets or melted them. The slab above these layers grows with elevation from 30 to 100 cm.

Avalanche Summary

There is some small solar activity occurring on steep solar slopes especially around black bodies. It is easy to trigger wind slabs in specific locations. We continue to find further evidence of the widespread cycle on November 28 but have seen no recent activity on these layers.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.