Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Regions
Cariboos.
I would veer away from thin snowpack areas, rocky outcrops and large steep alpine slopes which didn't avalanche last week.
Confidence
Poor - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
Warm air from the Pacific will push in, bringing milder temperatures but not much precipitation in the short term.Friday: Light snow. Winds increasing to moderate SW. Staying cool. Saturday: Light snow. Ridgetop winds increasing to moderate-strong SW. A layer of warm air may form at mountain height, while the valleys remain cool.Sunday: Light snow. Light to moderate S winds. The layer of warm air aloft may become more entrenched.
Avalanche Summary
We haven't had any new reports of avalanche activity. This may be due to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. If you have any observations, please send them to [email protected].
Snowpack Summary
Approximately 1m of settling storm snow sits on weak crystals which formed throughout early and mid-November. These weak crystals include facets on a hard rain crust, and surface hoar (which may also sit on a crust on steep southerly slopes). Snowpack data from the Cariboo region is very limited at the moment, but I expect these layers are reacting similarly to the North Selkirk/Monashees because the formation conditions were generally the same. Recent snowpack tests suggest these layers can still be human triggered in some locations, and if triggered, are capable of producing wide propagations and large avalanches. Recent variable winds may have redistributed surface snow creating dense wind slabs in exposed terrain.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.