Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanche danger will rise throughout the day as new snow and strong winds create very dangerous avalanche conditions. Large avalanches are likely at mid and upper elevations. Natural and human triggered avalanches are almost certain. Travel in avalanche terrain and terrain exposed to hazard from above is not recommended.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Certain
    Size
    1–3

    Expect to find large wind slabs in middle and upper elevation terrain. 14-20” of new snow (1.75” SWE) is forecast with the highest period of precipitation intensity during the late morning hours with southeast wind at 60-70 mph.  Wavering forecasted snow totals, undeveloped start zones and the chance for mixed precipitation types add an element of uncertainty to the size of new slabs, but a slick bed surface makes natural avalanches likely today.

    Apart from the risk of burial from an avalanche, runout zones are littered with rocks and trees in many locations due to shallow snowpack. The chance for bodily trauma is significant, even with a small slide today. 

    Keep an eye out for wind shifting south then west in the late afternoon and evening creating new wind slabs on north, east and southwest aspects.

    Tuckerman Ravine 1/16/2022. Hard snow, water ice and slick bed surfaces. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    In wind protected locations, you can trigger avalanches that break in the new snow or on the existing icy hard bed surface. These will grow in size as new and drifted snow accumulates through the day. If you find more than 8 inches of soft snow you’ve found a storm slab with the potential to slide and bury you. Avoid deep, wind protected pockets of soft snow, especially above terrain traps. 

Avalanche Discussion

Around 1.75” of liquid equivalent will fall as snow above 3000’ today. The first several inches of cold dry snow will struggle to bond with the existing icy bed surface. As the snow piles up, natural avalanches are likely on these smooth surfaces.  In poorly developed start zones consisting of mostly rocks and small trees, anchoring will limit the chance of avalanches until the anchors are buried. Temperatures are warming in the afternoon. Snow with higher densities will land on lighter snow surfaces underneath and could also contribute to a more unstable snowpack in the upper snow layers, another concern to keep tabs on as the storm develops.

There are several uncertainties to how this storm will play out. Snow totals may be lessened at all elevations by a change to mixed precipitation. Upslope snow showers this evening may add more snow available for transport from the west and northwest wind. While some locations have smooth snow and ice bed surfaces, many locations in the range have a very thin snowpack with exposed rocks and small trees which will need to be filled in before an avalanche is possible. Those same rocks and trees may act to reduce the availability of snow for transportation by the wind. Due to the above uncertainties, we may not reach conditions to warrant a HIGH danger rating in many areas, but then again we might. Either way, limited visibility, intense snowfall rates and shifting wind will make travel in avalanche terrain dangerous today. 

The Lion Head Summer Trail is now closed for the season due to avalanche risk. The Lion Head Winter Route is the preferred option to the summit. 

Observations: Share what you see this season. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs the community, and improves our avalanche forecast. We may not respond, but we read and appreciate every single observation.  Here is a quick video on what is helpful to include in an observation. 

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