Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Sunshine and warm weather will try to cause the snow surface to become wet and unstable. If you find wet sticky snow or see new rollerballs, the warm-up is winning. Seek out lower angled or more frozen terrain to continue your day.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Clear skies and long winter nights may allow the snow surface to freeze in some locations and delay the loose wet hazard on Friday. However, sunshine and warming temperatures should eventually win and cause the snow surface to become wet. This will likely occur first on SE-SW aspects. When you notice wet and punchy snow or start to see new rollerballs and point release slides, it’s time to find lower angled or more frozen slopes. What can be tricky, is sometimes the rocky terrain above you may heat faster than where you’re traveling. You may see small natural avalanches starting from these rocky slopes. Don’t forget to pay attention to the terrain above you especially if it is basking in the sunshine. While most of these avalanches should remain small, in bigger terrain, some of these slides could gather snow and grow large enough to bury you. 

    While we think you’re most likely to encounter loose wet avalanches Friday, wet slab, glide, and cornices events are still on our mind. Particularly at Mt Rainier and Mt St Helens where recent rainfall totals were substantially higher than the crest. While it’s unlikely, you could see an isolated very large avalanche. This is most likely in very steep and rocky areas. Consider choosing routes that limit the time you spend below these very specific features.

    (1/12/2022)

    A small loose wet avalanche originating in rocky terrain. Note the small rollerballs in the left of the image. 

    Photo: Crystal Mt Ski Patrol

Avalanche Discussion

The recent rain continued warm temperatures, and expected sunshine are all keeping us from gaining much confidence in the snowpack. These factors continue to maintain the avalanche danger and the possibility for wet avalanches longer than normal. Conversely, when we see prolonged warm periods like this, the danger often goes up. However, big storms (Jan 6-7 and 11-13) produced significant avalanche cycles and thoroughly tested the snowpack. So, we’re left with this uneasy feeling, generally wet snowpack, and lingering danger. Take these recent big changes, uncertainty about the snowpack, and rather unusual prolonged warm period into consideration before jumping into big or high consequence terrain. 

As you travel you may see evidence of the recent avalanche cycles from Crystal Mt to Mt St Helens and from Paradise to White Pass (see media gallery below). Several very large (D3-4) avalanches were reported from the Jan 6-7 storm. Some of them had enormous crowns, broke trees, ran far distances, and left immense debris piles. You can check out many of these avalanches on our avalanche occurrence database and observations tab.

The upper snowpack now consists of a variety of weak wet snow,  stout crusts, and strong rounded grain layers. We have very limited information about the consistency and distribution of any potential weak layers. However, we do not suspect any widespread layers of concern at this time. 

Regions covered