Avalanche forecast

Cariboos

Feb 16 – 17, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Archived · expired 15 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–5
    Forecast strong southwest winds and new snow are expected to develop new windslabs. Various thin windslabs exist due to recent moderate northerly winds.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–5
    Cornices are large and may become weak and fall off naturally. Large loads like cornices may trigger slab avalanches on the slopes below.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Overnight snowfall is expected to total about 2-5 cm in most of the region. Another ridge is forecast for Friday that should bring mostly clear skies and light winds during the day. The next Pacific frontal system is expected to move inland from the coast during the evening. Moderate snowfall combined with moderate southwest wind is expected during the morning, turning to flurries in the afternoon. Forecast amounts are about 5-10 cm total. Light flurries are expected to continue on Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

Skiers and riders have triggered thin soft windslabs in the alpine up to size 1.0 . Natural ice fall and a natural cornice fall to size 2.5 were reported from the region. The cornice fall released a slab, but there was not much propagation.

Snowpack Summary

The new snow layer above the February 09 surface hoar is now about 10-15 cm thick. Some areas have reported that the surface hoar had grown to 50 mm before being buried. Some thin windslabs have developed due to down flowing air on large glaciated features. A melt-freeze crust has developed on solar aspects at all elevations, and on all aspects below about 1400 metres. The mid-pack is generally well settled. There is some concern that large loads like cornices may trigger the Jan. 20th facet layer. Some shallow snowpack areas may continue to have a weak layer of basal facets near the ground.

Regions covered