Avalanche forecast

Uintas

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger above treeline in upper elevation terrain, especially in the wind zone. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE, particularly on steep, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass and especially in terrain with an easterly component to its aspect. While more the exception than the rule- any avalanche that breaks to weak layers of snow near the ground will result in a deep, dangerous avalanche that'll instantly ruin your day.

Steep, southerly, upper elevation terrain will take on heat fast today and the danger for wet slides and sluffs rises to MODERATE with daytime heating. Human triggered wet snow avalanches are POSSIBLE during the heat of the day.

Near and below treeline the avalanche danger is LOW and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY. Low danger does not mean "no danger". Avalanches can still happen which is why we always carry avalanche rescue gear and expose only one person at a time to avalanche terrain. To avoid avalanches completely, take advantage of all the terrain in the Uintas that is less than 30 degrees in steepness where avalanches don't happen.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    4

    Andy took a rip around the Mirror Lake Highway yesterday and found the snowpack gaining strength, but his snowpit profile in the image above still suggests we've got a long way to go before the snowpack turns the corner.

    The Valentines storm is settling and gaining strength, as a matter of fact, getting around is seamless because the snow will feel solid under our skis, board, or sled... and that's good news. But it's a double edge sword and we need to think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on and we need to remember most of our winter snowpack is resting on an early season persistent weak layer (PWL) or weak, sugary facets about a foot above the ground.... think strong snow on weak snow. The PWL exists on most slopes except those facing due south and southwest.

    Avalanche conditions remain deceptively tricky and here's why-

    Theprobability of triggering a deep dangerous avalanche is generally low, but the consequences are high because the entire seasons snowpack will crash down on top of you if you have misjudged the snowpacks stability. Now, you wouldn't go to Vegas and bet against the house with those odds right? Personally, I don't entirely trust anything in the snowpack I can't manage, so I'm going to continue avoiding terrain that harbors questionable snowpack structure. Of course the usual suspects come to mind... steep, rocky, upper elevation slopes facing the north half of the compass is bulls-eye terrain and should be considered suspect. With all the great coverage across the range and so many other riding options, there's no reason to roll the dice or pull on the dogs tail.

    What to do? Unfortunately it's just a season with a dangerous snowpack. There's no way around that fact, and the key to longevity is avoiding big, open terrain, especially those in the Alpine that are steeper than about 30 degrees.

    With such a supportable slab on top of the PWL, a slope may have many sets of tracks on it and still slide if someone hits a thin spot in the snowpack near a rock or bush hidden under the snow, like in the image above.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Damp snow dribbling off steep cliffs bands like in the image above is a good indicator that sunny slopes are heating up.

    The heat is on and steep southerly slopes are warming up and shedding a shallow layer of their winter coats. The sun is high in the sky and if you're feeling like an ant under a magnifying glass so is the snow. As the surface snow becomes damp, manky, or unsupportable you'll want to get off of and out from steep sun baked slopes, and steer clear of terrain traps like gullies where even a small avalanche can stack up deep piles of debris.

Additional Info

No matter how you cut it, yes... it has been dry!

I will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Thursday, March 4th.

Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program

Recent Activity

No significant avalanche activity to report since Sunday. Above, I visited a large slide in the Upper Humpy Drainage which broke 4'-6' deep and was initiated with explosives.

More obs, trip reports, and avalanches found here.

Snow and Weather

Nowcast-

With high pressure overhead it was a tranquil night and temperatures remained rather warm, only dipping into the low to mid 20's where they sit early this morning. Winds are light and southerly, blowing just 10-20 mph along the high peaks. No new snow to report and the sun is taking its toll on lower elevation sunny slopes. But fret not... with a little hunting you'll easily find soft, creamy snow on mid and upper elevation wind sheltered slopes.

Forecast-

Another beautiful spring morning is on tap with bright sunshine and temperatures warming into the upper 30's. Southerly winds remain reasonable, blowing in the 20's along the high peaks. Clouds increase late in the day as a storm approaches the southern portion of the state.

Futurecast-

Thursday brings clouds and a few snow showers, but significant storminess remains south of our zone. Clear skies for Friday and another chance for snow ramping up Saturday.

Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?

Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.

General Announcements

If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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