Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Warm temperatures and the intense sun this time of year will quickly warm up the surface creating loose wet snow avalanches on steep solar aspects near and above treeline and all aspects below treeline. Pay attention to rollerballs and pinwheels as these are indications that the surface snow is getting wet.  A smaller loose wet snow avalanche can entrain snow stepping down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  Faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack continue to remain a concern on North through East and SE aspects near and above treeline. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes and likely trigger points near rock outcrops and on the margins of the slabs as these are places you're most likely to impact deeper weak layers. Lower angle wind-sheltered northerly slopes will provide safer and better skiing and riding.    

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Faceted weak layers from December deeper down in the snowpack continue to persist on N through E and SE aspects near and above treeline. These weak layers are lingering typically in the bottom 60 cm of the snowpack with the January and February storm snow forming slabs on top of these weak layers.  Triggering one of these deeper weak layers may take finding the right slab/weak layer combination or where the overlying slab is thinner and weak layers are shallower.  It may not be the first, second, but may take the fifth person on a slope to find a "sweet spot" to get the slope to avalanche.  

    Avoid likely trigger points, near rock outcrops, steep convex rolls, and on the margins of the slab. Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses most likely will not be present in travels and lure you into steeper terrain.  Using a probe pole to feel for strong over weak layering or taking the time to dig down into the snowpack is a great way to assess if this poor snowpack structure exists.    Any persistent slab avalanche would be large and dangerous potentially taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  Giving avalanche paths wide berths, avoiding being on or connected to slopes over 35 degrees is a great way to stay safe. 

    Faceted weak layers and depth hoar that formed earlier in the season continues to linger deeper down in the snowpack beneath stronger cohesive slabs.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    It didn't take long for the warm temperatures and the intense sun this time of year to quickly heat up the new snow on solar aspects yesterday.  That trend will continue today, like clockwork as the sun rises East facing slopes will be impacted first, then moving to South and finally West-facing terrain. North facing slopes below treeline may also feel the impacts of the warm temperatures today. Pay attention to rollerballs and pinwheels in the snow as these are indications of the snow surface getting wet. Loose wet snow avalanches typically start as a point release near rock bands and start to fan out further down the slope.  A smaller loose snow avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper older layers potentially able to trigger deeper weak layers creating a larger avalanche. If you notice an aspect is starting to get wet on the surface, head to a shadier slope with drier snow, or maybe it's time to head back to the car and go for a bike ride.

Avalanche Discussion

Spring has fully set in here in northern New Mexico and it looks like that pattern will stay with us through the middle of next week where temperatures will get even warmer. It's that time of year where you have to get after the powder quickly after a storm before the sun quickly gets to the new snow.  Yesterday it was around noon when most slopes except for North and shady aspects had heated up, turning the 4 to 6 inches of fresh snow from Thursday into heavier wet mank. Thankfully we're getting good solid refreezes at night with temperatures dropping back into the teens.  It will most likely take the next couple of days of transition before we start to get the spring "corn cycle" set-up with the thicker melt-freeze crust on the surface.  It was great to see so many people getting an early start yesterday and it's a good reminder that this time of year, you often have to adjust your timing to avoid the wet snow that comes later in the afternoon.

In travels yesterday we were not noticing wind slabs to be reactive, so we've dropped that from the problem list, but you may encounter an isolated wind slab above treeline on the leeward side of ridgelines or in a cross-loaded gully.  These wind slabs would be small, but have formed on top of crusts and previous hard-packed wind slabs and may have a buried near-surface facet layer just below the old surface. The concern is that a smaller wind slab avalanche could step down into deeper weak layers as it travels down the slope. 

The persistent slab problem has slowly eased since the last significant loading event from the Valentines Day/Week storm in mid-February. Unfortunately, we haven't put the faceted weak layers to bed quite yet. Stability tests in shallower snowpacks ( < 150 cm) continue to get propagating results with hard force. In deeper snowpacks, it's hard to get these deeper weak layers to fail.  If you're planning on stepping out into bigger steeper terrain, there is a good chance you will not get immediate feedback, like shooting cracks or loud audible collapses.  Even digging a snowpit in the wrong spot could give you a false sense of security that lures you into steeper terrain until it's too late.  It is most likely going to take hitting a likely trigger point or "sweet spot" to get a persistent slab avalanche. As with anything in life, there is always a level of risk and traveling in avalanche terrain is no different.  Right now though, the consequences of triggering a deeper persistent slab avalanche would be quite high if you did pull a slope out, as there is a good chance it would take with it most of the season's snowpack. 

 

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