Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You can trigger a persistent slab avalanche in steep, open, wind-exposed terrain near and above treeline today. This storm brought significantly more snow to upper elevations than lower. We've been observing 6 to 8 inches of new snow above 11,000'. Strong winds have drifted 12 to 16 inches of snow on the leeward sides of ridges and cross-loaded features. These will be the most likely areas to trigger a persistent slab avalanche. Keep an eye out for signs of unstable snow such as collapsing and shooting cracks. Avoid wind drifted slopes and terrain greater than 30 degrees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wind drifted snow continues to stress and cap several faceted persistent weak layers in the snowpack.  Buried near-surface facets beneath wind crusts from last week's wind events will be the easiest and most likely layer to trigger a persistent slab avalanche. Our shallow snowpack has several layers of weak facets sandwiched between decomposing slabs in the mid-pack and near the ground.  There is a good likelihood that a smaller avalanche failing in upper weak layers may step down into these deeper weak layers creating a large destructive avalanche. 

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like collapsing and shooting cracks.   Avoid being on or connected to slopes greater than 30 degrees as you can trigger avalanches from long distances today. 

Avalanche Discussion

Above 11,000', especially on open terrain, we have been observing a fairly uniform 6 to 8 inches of new snow with drifts up to 16 inches in depth. Our fragile layer of near-surface facets buried 20-40cms down under a thin wind crust is the most likely layer to trigger a persistent avalanche today. This weak layer is extremely well connected across the terrain and will be capable of producing avalanches large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person, especially if it steps down into deeper weak layers in the snowpack. Areas, where the wind has stiffened our new snow into a more cohesive slab, should be avoided. Wind drifted areas are pretty easy to identify right now. Look for pillow-like snow features and watch for a change in snow surface texture and hardness.   

Below treeline, we have a mostly homogeneous snowpack of faceted snow. In open slopes exposed to the wind, you may find a small pocket of wind drifted snow capable of producing a small avalanche. The more likely hazard would be producing a loose dry avalanche from steep terrain. Be mindful of terrain traps and the consequences of being swept off your feet. Ground hazards, unfortunately, continue to be a real threat at these elevations. 

Wind-sheltered slopes no greater than 30 degrees will help mitigate the avalanche hazard and provide great skiing today. 

If you are out today and experience a collapse, shooting cracks, or any signs of unstable snow please submit an observation! Information like that is extremely valuable. You can also just reach out to the center directly or shoot us an email if you don't want to fill out an observation. Stay safe out there everyone. 

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