Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Conditions remain dangerous. Triggering a large avalanche is likely on many steep slopes. Skiers and riders should choose low-angle terrain that isn't threatened by steeper slopes above. There have been numerous remotely triggered avalanches—released from below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes—this past week. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    The storm early last week added more load to our well-established persistent weak layer that is now buried around 2-3 feet deep in this zone. The highest concentration of natural avalanches occurred in the drainages near Smiley Creek (example) and in the far Western Smokys, but slides also occurred in the Sawtooths.

    On Wednesday and Friday of last week, riders remotely-triggered avalanches in the Western Smokys (photo, photo). I was in the northern Sawtooths yesterday, where I found a 2.5' thick, dense slab atop a layer of sugary facets that was showing little signs of improvement. With the weak layer in this zone more deeply buried, it may be more difficult to trigger a slide than in other portions of the forecast area. But if you do trigger an avalanche, it's likely to be a big one that will be difficult to survive.

    There are two key factors that point to this instability being especially long-lasting and unpredictable: 1) the buried weak layer is especially bad, and 2) this weak layer has been very slowly loaded over the past three weeks.  As time goes by and the obvious signs of instability diminish, it requires more and more discipline to choose appropriate terrain—read more on that in the Forecast Discussion below. We urge backcountry skiers and riders to continue to choose low angle slopes and to pay extra attention to the terrain they're "connected" to. Remotely triggering an avalanche from below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes remains a very real possibility.

Avalanche Discussion

As we make a plan for a day of backcountry skiing or riding, it's helpful to establish a "mindset". Our mindset sets the tone for the day's terrain selection. Did we just get a big storm, requiring us to dial it back in from previous days' choices? Are conditions stable and it's a green light for steep terrain? Are we heading into an unknown snowpack, requiring us to start from scratch with our assessment? Once in the field, it can also serve as a double-check on our decisions: "Why are we considering this steeper slope when we said we were stepping it back today?"

Employing a "strategic mindset" has become common practice for professionals and advanced recreational skiers and riders. The approach was first described by guide Roger Atkins in 2014—you can read more about it here. One of the mindsets he outlines—and one that is not commonly used—is Entrenchment. For better or worse, entrenchment describes our current situation to a tee.

Entrenchment is the mindset we have when a well-established persistent instability exists, and it's expected to change very slowly over time. We're "stuck" making the same conservative terrain choices day after day. As time goes on, much of the easily-accessible, low-angle terrain becomes tracked, or we get bored and start itching for more challenging skiing and riding. Discipline is needed to make consistently good terrain choices day after day, and sometimes week after week. 

But, as they say, recognition is half the battle. The entrenchment mindset reminds us that this is the snowpack we have, and it's best to accept it. Rather than chomp at the bit each day, we can settle into a routine of enjoying the low angle skiing and riding that is available to us. And don't forget that almost any day riding in the backcountry—however mellow—is better than even the best day at work!

Be sure to check out Ben's Weekend Update to catch up on what happened this past week. Spoiler Alert: It was an exciting week.

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