Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger remains elevated with the potential to trigger deep, persistent slab avalanches. Expect active, shallow windslabs to form with increasing easterly winds on Thursday. Consider avoidance of steep open slopes near and above treeline; it is the only way to be sure to not trigger deep avalanches with dire consequences. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Watch for wind-stiffened snow and recent drifts. Avoid leeward and cross-loaded slopes where westerly wind has deposited slabs over the past week. Avalanches will be bigger and easier to trigger above treeline. Any slide could break into older weak layers of snow causing a very large and destructive deep persistent slab avalanche. Use caution near cornices and the edge of ridgelines. You can use small, inconsequential slopes to check if the storm snow slides or cracks easily. In wind-sheltered terrain, you could trigger small loose dry avalanches on slopes near 40 degrees.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Quiet weather and time have helped to decrease your chances of triggering one of these, but a large amount of uncertainty remains. In most places near and above treeline, the weak structure can be found.  You probably won't get any warning signs such as shooting cracks or whumphs. If you do get a whumph on a steep slope, it could be your last. Experienced travelers are hedging their bets and staying well away from steep open slopes near and above treeline because of this. Put a large buffer of terrain between where you travel and large avalanche paths, especially wind loaded areas. Travel like the terrain could avalanche big, and make sure to stop and regroup only in truly safe areas.

    About 3-5 feet below the surface, you can find a softer layer of weak faceted snow above or around a crust that formed in mid-January. Sudden and propagating snowpack tests on this layer can indicate the potential for an avalanche. While these avalanches may be less likely below treeline, persistent weak snowpack structure can be found in open terrain above 4,000ft. 

    (2/7/2021) A two party involvement occurred on February 7th. Skiers triggered a very large (D3) avalanche which partially buried 2 people. The avalanche released on a NE aspect at 6,100ft on Jim Hill in the Stevens Pass zone.

Avalanche Discussion

We are in the middle of a prolonged period of dangerous conditions with deep persistent slab avalanches throughout many NWAC zones. 

Two snow bike riders were caught and buried by a very large avalanche in the East Central Zone (See the short video in the media gallery below). One rider was partially buried and was able to dig himself out. The other rider was fully buried and killed. The avalanche (HS-AV-R3-D3-O) occurred on a northeast aspect at 4400 ft in the Knox Creek drainage near Cle Elum. 

The recent storm added around 4ft of settled snow to the pack. Reports of natural and human-triggered slides continue to come in: A very recent, natural avalanche occurred at Snoqualmie Pass on a Northeast aspect at 5,000ft (see photo below). A two party D3 avalanche partially buried two people on Jim Hill on Sunday. On Monday, Highlands Bowl ran (Southeast at 5,600ft). This slope was also the site of a widely propagating avalanche on Friday and skier triggered avalanches on January 27th.  A very large natural D3 avalanche likely ran on the night of the 6th on a NW aspect of Jim Hill into the Lanham Creek drainage. There were also very large avalanches observed on Upper Nason Creek (photo below), Tunnel Creek (photo below), NE slopes 5,400ft above Lake Susan Jane, and NE slopes 5,400ft above Swimming Deer Lake.  

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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