Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You may find difficult travel conditions and wet avalanches on Friday, particularly on the volcanoes. Don’t let one of these slides push you into a terrain trap or other consequential terrain. As you ascend to upper elevations, keep an eye out for piles of wind-drifted snow to avoid.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Observations from multiple areas in the zone indicate that there’s an inch or two of low-density snow sitting on top of the rain crust that was formed by this week’s atmospheric river event. On the tail end of that event, winds were certainly strong enough to transport this snow or any cold and dry snow above the rain/snow line onto leeward slopes or toward the sides of gullies and bases of cliffs to form Wind Slabs. Observations at Mount Rainier confirmed this today, with pockets of windblown snow found in the near treeline band. With a quick shot of precipitation in the forecast for Thursday night and Friday morning focusing on the volcanoes, middle and upper elevations may get a couple inches of new snow. The rain/snow line from the previous event still has not been confirmed, but it is suspected to be in the 7500-8000’ range. If this is the case, you may only be dealing with slabs created by the wind drifting the previous couple inches plus whatever new snow accumulates. The current surface snow is weak, so if it gets buried, these slabs could be reactive. Use the previous rain crust as an indicator to help you identify if you are looking for new or old Wind Slabs. If you find the crust a few inches below the surface, you will be dealing with new wind slabs. If you are plunging into deeper snow, then be on the lookout for larger slabs involving this past week’s snow. In either scenario, keep an eye out for wind-textured snow surfaces or smooth pillow-like piles of snow to help you identify wind-loaded features to steer around.

    (1/14/2021) Pockets of windblown snow were found at Paradise on 1/14. This test slope cracked easily under the weight of a ski.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    This quick shot of precipitation is coming in with freezing levels around 6500’, meaning that we may be seeing rain at middle to low elevations. With a little bit of snow sitting atop the previous rain crust, the rain could cause some Wet Loose activity tomorrow. Slides should be small since there is not a lot of snow available, but don’t let one catch you in consequential terrain. If you find rain falling on dry snow or see fresh rollerballs, pinwheels, or fan-shaped avalanche debris, head for lower angled terrain away from steep slopes above you.

Avalanche Discussion

On Thursday, professionals around the zone found evidence of this past week’s avalanche cycle almost everywhere you look, with crowns on most features and plenty of avalanche debris. At Paradise, recent avalanches reportedly were focused on any slope that did not have a Westerly component to it, leading us to believe that the wind was a large player in the previous cycle before the rain. That cycle should be pretty much wrapped up at this point aside from the unlikely possibility of a Glide avalanche being triggered by additional rain on Friday morning. Since the bulk of the precipitation will be focused on the volcanoes, that would be the most likely area for this type of avalanche to occur. Throughout the zone, new precipitation and freezing levels around 6500’ will again have us dealing with wet problems below the rain/snow line and dry snow problems above. We expect any avalanche activity to occur above the recent crust, with the exception of the aforementioned Glide avalanche, which could be large and deadly. More concerning could be the travel conditions out there. Although better than originally anticipated, creeks are swollen, trees have broken, and there is a lot of avalanche debris on slopes. Travel cautiously and think about the consequences of a slip and fall.

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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