Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Many hours of very high wind has impacted the snowpack reducing the chance of an avalanche today. While human triggered avalanches are unlikely, watch for isolated areas of softer, unstable snow in wind protected areas.  Small pockets of wind drifted snow from snow showers today may be found in the terrain and should be on your radar, though these are not expected to increase the danger rating.  Avalanche danger is LOW. Generally stable conditions exist, but, like any day in the winter this is not the day to ski solo or leave your avalanche beacon in the car.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    Scouring action from prolonged, very high wind yesterday has worked to reduce the sensitivity of existing and new wind slabs formed on Monday. Large slabs exposed to the wind will be generally smooth and firm (pencil hard) with slightly softer snow beneath. Triggering these wind slabs are unlikely, though not impossible if you find a thin spot.  Isolated pockets of softer snow will be closer to stubborn than unreactive in sensitivity, with a greater chance to trigger, but small in size. 

    Be alert for the consequences of triggering even a small slide and make your terrain choices accordingly. Long sliding falls may be possible where the wind has stripped any new snow, exposing a refrozen crust formed from a warm period Sunday morning.  Proper self-arrest tools may be your only way to stop if you begin a sliding fall on even low angle slopes. 

    A good but non-standardized snow test today to help identify the difference in snow hardness under your feet today is the Ski Pole Penetrometer Test. In your travels, stick your ski pole down into the snowpack feeling for changes in density on the way down, and back up. In our current firm snow, handle first is probably best, but in softer snow basket first is more sensitive to subtle changes. If you find firm snow over soft snow today you’ve found the slabs of concern.

Avalanche Discussion

Observations in the field yesterday were challenging with downed trees, very high wind and cold temperatures. What we did see was enough to confirm the results of 18 hours of wind in the 70-100 mph range. Lee aspects are left with wind slabs structured with thick, hard snow over one-step softer snow and no signs of propagation. Distribution of the new wind slabs looked to be fairly widespread, with surprisingly large piles of drifted snow;  given the small snow totals on Monday this suggests the strong wind was able to find older snow for transport. Limited visibility prevented a clear view of start zones high in the gullies, but small windows presented wind scoured surfaces and the lustrous appearance of old refrozen crusts. 

 

Information on all US avalanche fatalities can be found here with details and accident reports appearing as they are submitted to the CAIC.  An interview with Simon Trautman of the National Avalanche Center on the recent cluster of fatal avalanche accidents can be found here. 

Thanks to everyone for taking the time to submit all the observations of snow and avalanche conditions, both inside and outside our avalanche forecast area. Please keep them coming. 

 Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

Thursday, March 4 @ 7PM -Avalanche Awareness class with Al Mandell - A Free Zoom Webinar.

The Harvard Cabin is open for camping only with no entry allowed inside the cabin. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.

Please Remember:

  • Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
  • Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

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