Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Triggering a persisent slab avalanche remains the concern today. You are most likely to trigger one of these avalanches on North through East and West aspects near and above tree line. Stiffening slabs over weak faceted snow can still produce an avalanche large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. Avoid terrain steeper than 35 degrees in areas where this problem exists. 

 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Strong winds over the past several days have created thicker stiffer slabs above treeline. The leeward sides of ridges and cross-loaded gullies will have thicker, stiffer slabs on the surface. There are two main weak layers of concern to look out for. One is a layer of basal facets/depth hoar that rests near the ground in shallower snowpacks. The second is a layer of near-surface facets that we've generally found living under a decomposing wind crust that was the old snow/new snow interface prior to last week's storm. 

    Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses have become less frequent in the last couple of days.  Take the time to dig down into the snow to assess whether this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak exists before committing to a slope.  

     

    Stiffening slabs near the surface above treeline from strong winds over the last several days, with a mid-pack faceted layer.

Avalanche Discussion

There have been a total of 4 avalanche fatalities reported across the West over the previous week.  Our deepest condolences go out to all the family and friends effected by these accidents. 

  • Solo skier fatality near Crested Butte, CO on Dec 18
  • Snowmobile fatality in the Salt River Range, WY on Dec 18
  • Two skiers caught, buried and killed near Silverton, CO on Dec 19

You can read more about these accidents on avalanche.org/avalanche-accidents

Another day of warm and sunny weather for us before a cold front plummets temperatures overnight. Strong West/Southwest winds will continue to be the driving influence effecting our terrain today and tomorrow. A weak trough of low pressure may bring an inch of new snow to our upper elevation terrain into tomorrow morning otherwise a major shift in the pattern doesn't appear to happen until sometime early next week. 

The big story for us over the last several days has been periods of strong winds from various directions that have wreaked havoc on our above treeline terrain and areas near treeline that are exposed to wind.  Some slopes have been stripped back to bare ground, while others have supportable hard slabs that feel hollow and sound drummy.  East aspects on the leeward side of ridgelines and obvious cross-loaded gullies have seen the greatest amount of wind transported snow and may have thicker denser slabs that sit on top of various faceted layers.  Near treeline, we are finding softer cohesive slabs that haven't seen the effects of the wind. These slabs sit on top of weak faceted snow or depth hoar in an overall shallower snowpack.  

As we travel in more and more zones, the spatial variability in our range is tremendous right now. For instance, some East aspects above treeline have barely enough snow to ski or ride, while others have over a meter of snow. It speaks to the need to address each slope individually as snowpack structures will vary greatly.  Digging a pit on an adjacent slope may not tell you what is happening on the slope you intend to ski or ride.  A probe pole can be an effective tool to quickly assess the snowpack structure feeling for strong over weak layers.    

As we push further and further away from the last significant loading event from Dec 10-13, triggering a persistent slab avalanche has become increasingly more stubborn but not impossible. In long column stability tests, we're getting a mixed bag of results from easy to hard force to get weak layers to collapse with the ability to propagate. If you hit that "sweet spot" on a steep enough slope, it may be possible to trigger an avalanche. This will typically be where the slab is thinnest near the margins of the slab or near rock outcrops.  

Below treeline, slabs that existed from last week's storms have deteriorated, and at these elevations, we are finding a shallow weak faceting snowpack. Once we introduce a slab again,  these slopes will become a concern. Right now, natural obstacles like downed trees and rocks are the biggest hazards in this terrain.  

Wind sheltered slopes less than 35 degrees will provide the best and safest riding today with good "recycled powder"!

 

Regions covered