The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing NW-NE-SE above treeline. In these areas, fresh deposits of wind drifted snow have added stress to buried persistent weak layers, and deep and dangerous human-triggered avalanches remain likely. The avalanche danger is MODERATE near and below treeline and human-triggered avalanches remain possible. As the day heats up, be alert to signs of wet loose instability such as rollerballs. Stick to slopes under 30 degrees and avoid being underneath or adjacent to avalanche terrain.
We can expect to see small natural avalanches on east to south to west aspects where slopes are warming from intense solar radiation. Be alert to signs of wet loose instability such as rollerballs or pinwheels and stay out out from under steep slopes if they become wet.
More than 2' of snow has fallen since last weekend adding significant stress to buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow. On steep slopes facing NW-N-SE, deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches 2'-4' deep remain likely. Weak layers of faceted snow exist on all aspects and the recent snow load has heightened concerns on south facing slopes. Persistent weak layer problems are deceptive and avoidance of avalanche terrain, or slopes steeper than about 30 degrees is the only sure bet.
SW-NW winds over the past few days have formed deposits of wind drifted snow, primarily in upper elevation, wind-exposed terrain. Pay particular attention to areas that have been cross-loaded. Although these slabs may be stubborn to trigger, they will likely break into deeper weak layers, and cause the entire season's snowpack to come crashing down. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and they may sound or feel hollow underneath. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
The Geyser Pass Road was plowed on Tuesday, but 3"-5" of new snow has fallen since then. 4x4 with good tires is recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) last packed and rolled the lower meadow through Gold Basin on Thursday.
It's been a week since any natural slab avalanches have occurred. Natural activity from last weekend's storm was surprisingly low, but additional reports of avalanches continue to trickle in. With the current poor snowpack structure, this means many steep slopes are hanging in balance just waiting for a human trigger.
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 2" Base Depth in Gold Basin 48" Wind W 5-10 Temp 18F
Today it will be sunny with increasing clouds. Highs 30 to 40 F. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. A low pressure trough entering the area tomorrow evening will bring clouds and wind, but no precipitation to our area.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
Warm temperatures and time have helped consolidate the snowpack, but weak layers are still present on many aspects and elevations. Yesterday's high at 10,000' was 38 degrees, and all but the shadiest of aspects now have 1-2 cm melt-freeze crusts. Early in the day I noticed surface hoar on shady aspects near valley bottoms. Most southerly slopes had pinwheels and roller balls and I even observed these on easterly aspects. Lots of glopping and "fly-paper" conditions, so don't forget your wax! Breaking trail in upper Gold Basin, I found supportive snow and did not experience cracking or whumpfing. However, weak snow can be found in most areas, and is easily identified in snowpits or by probing with a ski pole. The snow we received last week has settled into a 1-3' slab that may disguise the buried weak layers underneath, however, in areas where the slab is thinner, deep and dangerous avalanches may still be triggered. On a NE aspect near treeline, I observed poor snowpack structure and a somewhat stubborn slab. On a west aspect near treeline, Travis Nauman reported signs of a strengthening snowpack in this observation. By contrast, this observation from the Corkscrew Glades reports collapsing and whumpfing to be fairly widespread. The bottom line is that a weak, faceted snowpack is not going away anytime soon, and will continue to produce problems with each additional storm.
Sadly, over the last week, several more avalanche accidents have occurred. Although our snowpack is not to be trusted, enjoyable riding conditions exists on low-angle slopes.
Here is a summary of data for the period between Feb 3 - 17. Note the single greatest loading event of the season with more than 15" of snow 1.5" Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in a 12 hour period on Feb 13.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
