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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 5th, 2012–Dec 6th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Due to variable snowpack conditions

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Thursday: Light snowfall / moderate to strong west winds/ Freezing level at 800mFriday: Light snowfall / moderate to strong west winds / Freezing level at surfaceSaturday: Trace amounts of snow / Light west winds / Freezing level at surface

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, releases on the early November crust to size 1.5 were observed on a variety of aspects in the Invermere area between 2300m and 1800m. Triggering has been by explosives use and ski cutting, while one event was a skier accidental. I expect significant wind slab activity in the wake of strong winds and snowfall on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

In the upper snowpack, strong winds and light to locally heavy snowfall are responsible for newly formed wind slabs which are likely to exist on north to northeast aspects at treeline and above. Winds have also shaped new cornices which could fail and act as a trigger for the slope belowUp to 75cm of  snow that fell over the past week may sit above a surface hoar layer that was buried on the 28th. Although not widespread in the region, releases on this layer are quite likely if you have it in your area. Another surface hoar layer that developed during mid-november may exist up to 100cm down, and is still on the radar of professionals in the Golden area. At the base of the snowpack, there is a rain crust near the ground that we're calling the early November crust. There are some facets below it, or it may appear as a sandwich of crusts and facets. Although we haven't seen much activity on this layer in deeper snowpack areas, it is still reactive in the southeast corner of the region. In general, significant variations in snowpack structure exist across the region. Digging down and making your own observations will be critical to safe slope selection.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.