Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A weak snowpack structure exists throughout most of the forecast region with a buried persistent weak layer below the recent storm snow.  CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger continues due to this persistent slab avalanche problem and the possibility of human triggered avalanches.  Advanced route finding and backcountry decision making skills are required to avoid this avalanche problem.  Avalanche danger is expected to further rise into tomorrow as a winter storm impacts our area. 

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Recent storm snow and wind blown snow exists over the top of a buried persistent weak layer in many areas of the forecast region.  This weak layer is widespread in below and near treeline terrain and isolated in above treeline areas on W-NW-N-NE-E aspects.  The persistent weak layer is buried up to 1 foot deep with whumpfing sounds, cracking, and unstable snowpack test results reported throughout large parts of the forecast area over the last 2 days.  Where this weak layer is present makes up a large percentage of the overall useable terrain with our early season shallow snowpack.  Human triggered avalanches remain possible today with the potential for wide propagation, remote triggering from any connected terrain, and mid slope avalanches.  Additional load from the storm forecasted for tonight and tomorrow is expected to cause this weak layer to fail in some areas.

    Managing a persistent slab avalanche problem is challenging.  We know we have a poor snowpack structure and there are many signs of instabilities, but we haven't seen any avalanche activity.  The only way to effectively manage this avalanche problem is to use terrain to avoid areas where this problem is located until it goes away.  Limit terrain choices to under 30 degrees, avoid avalanche run out zones and any connected terrain which may be steeper that could be remotely triggered.  Consequences of any avalanche continue to remain elevated due to shallow snowpack conditions and exposed obstacles.

     

Avalanche Discussion

*  The Dec 11 persistent weak layer was formed by the faceting process during our extended dry period from Nov 18 through Dec 11 and is now buried 6 to 12'' below the snow surface.  This buried faceted weak layer is widespread below and near treeline, and isolated above treeline on W-NW-N-NE-E aspects.  Widespread whumpfing, cracking, and unstable snowpack test results have been reported throughout the forecast region over the past 2 days.

*  Light snow fell yesterday in some high elevation areas with a light rain/mist event that was reported up to at least 8500'.  Small roller balls, tree drippings, and generally damp conditions were reported from several locations.

 

Regions covered