East Slopes South

Avalanche conditions are generally stabilizing. Keep alert for and navigate around steep slopes where wind transported snow has accumulated, especially at upper elevations and near the Cascade crest. If you experience rapidly rising temperatures, consider the effect of the sun on recent snow and steer away from solar slopes if you see roller balls, pinwheels, or other signs of weakening snow surfaces.

Uncertainty might not be the right word, but there are a lot of divergent factors in Thursday's avalanche forecast. Erratic snow distribution, a strong temperature inversion with multiple freezing levels, and cool wind in Easterly flow are all factors that mean dramatically different avalanche conditions will be found at different aspects, elevations, and even slope to slope. Thursday should see a switch to mild westerly winds and warming temperatures. Until that warm air is fully established identify 

Very strong winds built shallow but reactive wind slabs Monday. Reports from Tuesday and Wednesday suggest that winds were strong enough to redistribute the snow into a patchwork of small wind slabs rather than thicken existing wind slabs. Wednesday, the east wind continued to keep the snow surface cool and wind transport active despite above freezing air temperatures, so shallow recently formed wind slabs may exist at upper elevations. Use visual clues to identify areas where wind slabs may exist such as slopes directly below cornices, pillow-like drifts, and convex slopes or gullies. Use caution where you see evidence of freshly wind transported snow and navigate around wind-loaded features especially where slopes are greater than 35 degrees.

East winds have kept snow surfaces cool and prevented the possibility of loose wet avalanches despite the sunny weather. There is some uncertainty about rapidly the winds will shift to westerly flow in the next 24 hours. When cool east winds are replaced by mild west winds, the warm ambient air temps will have a rapid impact on any soft snow surface. Sheltered slopes still holding fresh snow are the most likely to experience loose wet avalanches. Firm and scoured snow surfaces will likely not warm rapidly enough for loose wet avalanches to be a concern. Let the behavior of the snow surface guide your decision making more than the thermometer. Watch for signs of the snow becoming "heavy" and roller balls or pinwheels forming on the surface. This is evidence that you could trigger a loose wet avalanche. Steer away from slopes in direct sun which are steeper than 35 degrees if you see signs of warming surface snow.

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.