Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2025–Mar 4th, 2025

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Below Threshold.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Below Threshold.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Below Threshold.

Regions

Long Range Mountains, Corner Brook, Gros Morne, Northern Peninsula.

Rain on dry snow could create small but heavy avalanches.

Wind slab avalanches could be possible in high terrain on Sunday, and likely in any wind exposed terrain on Monday.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Looking forward to Sunday, we expect that human triggered avalanches will be possible where the surface snow is loose and sticky or slushy, or where fresh wind-loading is happening with dry snow high up in the hills. With new snow wind on Monday, wind slab avalanches could be more widespread.

On Friday, it is expected that a widespread loose wet avalanche cycle occurred during the heavy rain, small (up to size 1.5 wet loose avalanches were observed in the Tablelands).

Snowpack Summary

Due to large temperature swings, you may find dry snow, wet snow, or a frozen crust on the surface. Wind-loading may be forming reactive slabs up high.

The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and settled.

In wind sheltered, mid elevation areas, average snow depth is 100-130 cm. Wind exposed coverage is extremely variable, with features that catch wind-blown snow potentially being a few meters deep. With recent moist, dense snow sticking well to most aspects, you will find shallow snow areas, but very little ground is visible.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with light snow turning to rain. 60 to 80 km/h south ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 1500 m. Treeline high 3 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy with light rain turning to snow. 50-70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling back to sea level. Treeline low -5 °C.

(Possibly east/northeast wind and 10 cm of snow in the northern half of the forecast area, with some uncertainty on where the dividing line will be).

Monday

Partly cloudy with 3-8 cm of snow, pockets of 15 cm over the highest hills. 60 km/h west ridgetop wind with higher gusts overnight, easing to 20-30 km/h and shifting to northwest for the daytime period. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

Tuesday

Partly cloudy with light snow. 20 to 40 km/h west or northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline low -17 °C, high -12 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Wind slabs are isolated, but may remain reactive.
Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.
Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.