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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 7th, 2025–Mar 8th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells, Dogtooth, East Purcell, St. Mary.

While signs of buried weak layers may be hard to find, they continue to produce avalanches.

Be especially cautious on high north and east facing slopes, as well as steep slopes in the sun.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Thurs: One person was buried in an avalanche in Pedley Pass, just east of the forecast area. See details about that avalanche and a few nearby in these MINs.

Wed: Numerous, small natural and human triggered dry loose avalanches were reported in steep terrain, as well as a few small rider and explosive triggered slab avalanches.

Tues: Several small to large natural persistent slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported, with some being triggered by falling cornice chunks.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack is currently quite variable on different aspects, and across the forecast area. 5 to 10 cm of recent snow is settling over a widespread melt-freeze crust that exists everywhere but north-facing slopes above 2000 m. In wind sheltered areas it may have buried a layer of up to 10 mm, weak, feathery surface hoar.

A couple of weak layers consisting of a crust, facets or surface hoar from February and January remain a concern, buried 30 to 60 cm.

Additionally, a layer of facets from early December is buried 70 to 120 cm. In many areas, facets or depth hoar exist at the base of the snowpack. These deeper layers are not currently creating an avalanche problem.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Mainly clear. 15 to 25 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries, up to 3 cm in the alpine. 15 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 2000 m through the day.

Sunday

Mainly cloudy with snow beginning in the afternoon, up to 5 cm. 20 to 35 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1800 m.

Monday

Mainly cloudy with up to 15 cm of snow overnight. 15 to 25 km/h west ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -1 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
  • In times of uncertainty, conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind-affected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Pay attention to the wind; once it starts to blow, sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.