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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2025–Mar 13th, 2025

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Glacier, Esplanade, Jordan, North Selkirk, Dogtooth, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold.

***Updated 6:40 due to greater snowfall than expected***

Natural and human-triggered avalanches will become very likely to trigger on Thursday.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Many small to large (size 1 to 3) storm and wind slab avalanches were triggered naturally, by humans, and by explosives on Tuesday. They mostly occurred at treeline and alpine elevations and on all aspects. Most slabs were 40 to 80 cm deep.

With new snow and wind, both natural and human-triggered avalanches will be very likely on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

Around 20 to 40 cm of snow is forecast by Thursday afternoon with southwest wind. New storm and wind slabs will likely rapidly form. This will add to the 50 cm of storm snow that accumulated since Saturday. All this snow sits on a hard melt-freeze crust and surface hoar crystals in wind-sheltered terrain.

Weak layers of surface hoar and/or faceted grains buried mid-February and late-January are around 60 to 150 cm deep.

The lower half of the snowpack is strong.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow. 20 to 30 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1300 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with 10 to 20 cm of snow and local amounts of up to 30 cm possible. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1100 m.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow. 10 to 20 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -7 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow. 20 to 30 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeply buried weak layers and result in very large avalanches.
  • Remote triggering is a concern; avoid terrain where triggering overhead slopes is possible.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.