Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Feb 11 – 12, 2022
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Archived · expired 5 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable

Highlights

Daytime warming with a mixed bag of strong solar influence, rain, or loading will press the hazard to Considerable over the day. Extra caution advised in all avalanche terrain as the snowpack flexes through these first diurnal warming swings.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Any snow available for transport has blown into lee features building hard windslab and stripping ridgetops and open features bare along the Icefields Parkway and Maligne Lake area.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    Persistent slabs sit over different weak layers depending on elevation & aspect. Above 1950m a buried facet layer down 20-40cm is the primary concern. Below 1950m, a faceting crust down 40-70 is presenting a more stubborn version of a similar problem

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Spring like warming for the bulletin region trigging a significant loose wet cycle. Sunny aspects especially active.

Weather Forecast

Cooler air filtering in behind the present weather system and will drop freezing levels to valley bottom overnight. Winds will remain strong to extreme, west-northwest at ridgetop and will gradually weaken to just strong by morning. Flurries and light snow for the bulletin region overnight. Mild, sunny and dry for Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Exposed alpine stripped to rock at ridgetop and open features. Upper snowpack subject to diurnal swings in temperature and solar effect, TL and below. Dec FC down ~20-70cm. Basal FC/DH widespread throughout forecast zone.

Avalanche Summary

Significant loose wet/wet slab avalanche cycle observed on low elevation targets through the Parkway and Maligne highway corridors. Extended emergency closures possible at any time as the snowpack adjusts to the changing conditions. Avalanche control along the Parkway produced several large avalanches impeding through traffic longer than expected.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Regions covered