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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 10th, 2022–Feb 11th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Local avalanche danger will likely be determined by the presence of a surface crust. A strong, supportive crust means avalanches will be unlikely. If there is no crust or if it starts to break down with afternoon warming, wet loose avalanches may be possible on steep slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure brings very warm and sunny conditions which are expected to persist until the end of Sunday. 

Thursday night: Clearing overnight, moderate NW wind easing overnight, freezing levels 2500-2800 m.

Friday: Sunny, light N wind, freezing levels around 2800 m. 

Saturday: Sunny, light variable wind, freezing levels around 3000 m.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate SW wind, freezing levels 2500-3000 m. 

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, ski cutting triggered some small loose wet avalanches which were failing in the top 10 cm and sliding on top of the crust. Numerous natural solar-triggered loose wet avalanches were observed last weekend. 

Snowpack Summary

Light rain on Tuesday and ongoing high freezing levels have moistened the surface on all aspects and elevations. The formation of surface crust is expected on Thursday night with clear skies in the forecast. Any crust that does form may deteriorate with daytime heating and sun.

The late-January melt-freeze crust is now down around 40 cm and is reported to be knife hard and up to 30 cm thick. This crust extends to at least the top of treeline. While the snow above appears to be well bonded to this crust, we will continue to track it through this period of warming and sun for any signs of instabilities. 

Another prominent crust from mid-January is now down around 1 m but this crust no longer appears to be a concern in the region. 

Below the mid-January crust, the middle and lower snowpack are considered well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.