Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2022–Jan 14th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Avoid thin, rocky start zones and convex rolls. Go high enough to avoid moist, heavy snow, and stay low enough to avoid windslab, and you could have a pretty good time. Southwest wind continues to blow, and temperatures are rising.

Confidence

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy becoming overcast. 0-5 cm of snow expected. Moderate southwest wind trending to extreme at higher elevations. Freezing level rising to around 800 m. 

Friday: Cloudy. 3-6 cm of snow expected. Moderate southwest wind trending to extreme at higher elevations. Freezing level rising to around 1500 m.

Friday overnight and Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. 5-10 cm of snow expected. Strong southwest wind, trending to extreme at higher elevations. Freezing levels around 1000-1200 m. Closer to 500 m in the north end of the region.

Sunday: Cloudy. 5-15 cm of snow expected. Strong southwest wind, trending to extreme at higher elevations. Freezing level around 500-750 m. 

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, our Northwest field team saw a size 2, rider-triggered windslab avalanche on a northeast aspect in the alpine. The avalanche looks like it was triggered from a thin, rocky spot below a convex roll. See their Mountain Information Network (MIN) post here for photos and more details.

On Tuesday, a natural icefall triggered size 2.5 wind slab was reported on a NE aspect. At lower elevations closer to the coast where it was warmer, loose wet avalanches were observed. This MIN report and this one describe some recent wind slab activity.

Snowpack Summary

20-40 cm of recent storm snow has been redistributed by periodic moderate to strong SW winds which has formed reactive wind slabs and created a heavily wind affected snow surface in the alpine.

30-50 cm below the snow surface, Faceting from the prolonged cold temperatures may increase the reactivity of the recently formed wind slabs which could end up persisting for longer than normal. 

With the mild temperatures and ongoing wind, cornices are reported to be growing larger. 

The base of the snowpack is composed of crusts and weak faceted grains, particularly in thin snowpack areas. While these layers have generally gone dormant in the region, they still have the possibility of waking up with new snow load or warming, and wind slab avalanches may still have the potential to step down to these deeper layers in isolated areas. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
  • Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.