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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 21st, 2022–Jan 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

There is a lot of uncertainty as to how the snowpack is going to react to the sustained heat and sun. Loose wet avalanches will become possible as the surface crust breaks down, especially on steep sun exposed slopes. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

The region now sits under the warm ridge of high pressure which is expected to persist into early next week bringing very high freezing levels and sun. 

Friday Night: Mainly clear, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 3200 m. 

Saturday: Mainly sunny, moderate NW wind, freezing levels as high as 3400 m. 

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 3000 m, dropping to around 2500 m by Sunday night. 

Monday: Mainly sunny, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 2800 m. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity have been reported over the last few days but none have been expected with a widespread crust capping the snowpack. 

Observations remain limited. If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Recent heavy rain and warm temperatures has saturated the surface snow to mountain top elevations and a widespread crust has formed where the snow surface has refrozen. Below this crust, snow is moist down 30-50 cm and several old crusts are now breaking down. The middle and base of the snowpack are well settled and strong, consisting of well bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.