Avalanche forecast

Vancouver Island

Jan 6 – 7, 2022Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

New storm and wind slabs are expected to form, requiring a conservative mindset. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended for areas that receive greater than 30 cm of snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    New storm and wind slabs are expected to form, with anywhere from 20 to 40 cm of snow forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday. The most snow is forecast for the southern half of the island. Wind slabs are anticipated to develop in lee terrain features from strong southwest wind. This snow will build on the 100+ cm of snow received since January 1, which still may take more time to bond to previous surfaces.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 30 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -8 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, 50 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level rising to 1200 m.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 50 km/h northwest wind, treeline temperature -5 C.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 30 to 50 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -3 C.

Avalanche Summary

Riders triggered small storm slab avalanches on Tuesday, generally at treeline elevations and on northerly aspects.

Storm slab avalanche activity is anticipated to increase on Thursday due to the new snow.

We'd appreciate any observations while you are out travelling, even just a photo, on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Around 20 to 40 cm of snow is forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday, which will likely form new storm slabs in areas sheltered from the wind and wind slabs in exposed terrain. This snow will sit on surface hoar in sheltered areas and build on the 100+ cm of snow that has fallen since January 1. The snow will switch to rain below about 1200 m by the end of the day.

All of this snow overlies various old surfaces that formed during the cold spell in late December. They include a thin but hard melt-freeze crust or ice layer found up to about 1700 m, weak and sugary faceted grains or feathery surface hoar in areas sheltered from the wind, or hard wind-affected surfaces in terrain exposed to the wind. There is uncertainty in how long it will take for all this snow to bond to these various surfaces, but preliminary reports suggest that the snow is stabilizing.

The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and a few hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Regions covered