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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 27th, 2021–Dec 28th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Recent natural activity resulting from cornice failures initiating hard wind slab below ridges.

Cold temps will continue to weaken these unpredictable features and raise the likelihood of initiating large avalanches from lingering deep instabilities.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries.

Alpine temp: -20 °C.

Wind N: 10 km/h.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries.

Alpine temp: Low -29 °C, High -21 °C.

Wind W: 10 km/h.

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries.

Alpine Temp: Low -28 °C, High -21 °C.

Wind NW: 10 km/h.

Snowpack Summary

Recent HS redistributed with mod to strong SW winds. Wind slab developed continues on exposed terrain features at treeline and above. The mid-pack is supportive with an exception of a weakening crust interface down 30-40 cm (up to 1950m). Cold temperatures promoting top down facetting through-out the region.

Avalanche Summary

Recent road patrol confirms, it's miserably cold out there!

Two of the most concerning recent observations is the mass of loose dry snow clinging to steep terrain, especially concerning for ice climbers. Watch carefully for any significant overhead features (benches or catchments) still holding recent storm snow and, capped or corniced ridges.

Confidence

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.