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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2024–Jan 6th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky, Brandywine, Garibaldi, Homathko, Spearhead, Tantalus, Sky Pilot, Birkenhead.

Heavy snowfall and strong winds overnight - Expect to find a reactive storm slab by morning. Or fresh snow just barely covering lower elevation hazards.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Friday morning, explosives triggered storm slabs to size 1.5.

On Thursday, a few 1-1.5 slab avalanches were triggered in the Whistler Backcountry. Riders found reactive slabs 10-30 cm deep around ridges and in wind-loaded start zones. (see this MIN)

At the end of December, large and surprising avalanches failed over a crust down 50-100 cm (now deeper with new snow). Reports indicate this layer is becoming dormant, with no recent avalanches failing on this layer.

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of snow accumulated through Friday. Upwards of 30 cm of snow is forecast by Saturday morning.

10-30 cm of fresh and recent snow covers a crust that formed around the new year. This crust may exist up to mountain tops, and seems to be thick and supportive to the weight of a human south of Whistler, and more variable in thickness and strength to the north, where it thins out above 1900 m. Down 50-100 cm, facets or isolated surface hoar covers an early Dec crust. This layer last produced surprising avalanches on Dec 31st, however, recent reports suggest this layer is becoming dormant.

The lower snowpack is strong and bonded. Treeline snowpack depths 60-100 cm and decrease rapidly below treeline.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Snowing. 20-40 cm of snow accumulating overnight. Very strong southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -4 °C.

Saturday

Snowfall slowing early morning. Northwest ridgetop wind decreasing to moderate. Treeline low around -8 °C.

Sunday

A mix of sun and clouds. No precipitation. Light north ridgetop wind. Treeline low around -12 °C.

Monday

Cloudy with flurries, 5-10 cm snow. Increasing southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline low around -10 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.