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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 10th, 2023–Feb 11th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos, Blue River, Clearwater, McBride, Premier, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, Clemina, North Monashee, Renshaw, Robson.

Flurries and heightened winds will be forming new wind slabs on an ongoing basis through Saturday. Expect the size and reactivity of slabs to increase over the day and seek out sheltered terrain options away from overhead hazard to manage the situation. The chance for surface slabs to step down to a deep weak layer can't be ruled out.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Thursday included one size 1 (small) skier triggered wind slab with a 25 cm crown in the central part of the region as well as an observation one additional size 2, 50 cm-deep storm slab from the recent natural cycle. More extensive observations of this cycle were again reported farther south in the more heavily trafficked Selkirks and Monashees.

On Wednesday, clearer weather allowed for observations at higher elevations. A widespread storm slab avalanche cycle from the previous 24 to 48 hours was observed with avalanches from size 1.5 to 3. Most notable was a size 3 persistent slab avalanche that initiated on a steep north slope at 2000 m. The slab was 100-130 cm deep.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of new snow is expected to accumulate over higher terrain in the region by end of day Saturday under the influence of strong southwest winds. This will add to 60-100 cm of storm snow from the last week with similar elevated winds.

The recent snow sits above a plethora of old snow surfaces including previously wind-affected snow at upper elevations, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, faceted snow, and surface hoar crystals in wind-sheltered terrain.

In the upper meter of the snowpack sits two layers of surface hoar crystals and/or a melt-freeze crust. The surface hoar is most likely found around shaded treeline and lower alpine elevations. The melt-freeze crust is found up to 1800 m on all aspects and into the alpine on sun-exposed slopes.

Large and weak facets from November are near the base of the snowpack and continue to produce very large avalanches in the region.

Weather Summary

Friday night

Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Moderate to strong southwest winds.

Saturday

Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Moderate southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around -4.

Sunday

Cloudy with increasing snowfall bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Light rain below about 1400 metres Strong southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around -1 with freezing levels rising to 1600 meters.

Monday

Cloudy with easing flurries bringing about 5 cm of new snow. Light west winds. Treeline high temperatures around -5.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.